Our report, An Analysis of Growth in the Flathead Valley Since 2000: Evaluating the Status Quo Versus Alternative Patterns of Development as Flathead County Cities Plan Through 2045, looks at how the valley has actually grown over the past two decades — and what continuing that pattern would mean through 2045.
Key findings
- Growth is fast and it’s people moving here. Between 2010 and 2023, Flathead County’s population grew 21.6%, compared with Montana’s 13.5% and the nation’s 9.4%. Between 2020 and 2024, nearly 99% of new residents were relocations from outside the area rather than local births.
- Cities are spreading faster than they’re growing. From 2000 to 2023, Kalispell’s land area increased 138% while its population grew 89%; Whitefish’s land area grew 73% against 67% population growth; Columbia Falls grew 45% in area and 52% in population. Population densities have declined or stayed flat — the signature of sprawl.
- Most residents live outside city limits. 62.4% of county residents live in unincorporated areas, and the unincorporated county’s density rose 32% from 2000 to 2023 — six times faster than the highest-growth incorporated city.
- The trajectory continues. Conservative models project Flathead County reaching 132,488 to 150,555 residents by 2045, with similar outward expansion unless development patterns change.
What residents want instead
Our county-wide poll found 69% want growth accommodated through infill rather than sprawl, 67% believe the valley lacks adequate housing options, and 54% support allowing four small homes per lot in residential areas. The report recommends a range of homes between a single house and a big apartment block — duplexes, townhomes, backyard cottages, and small apartments — along with reduced minimum lot sizes, to accommodate growth while keeping farmland and open space open.